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Inverteum Capital's avatar

1) "If the LLM could save you 5% on $24,000 worth of purchases then it has justified the $100 per month subscription."

I find the ad version of this that you explained in your post "The inevitable death of Google" to be a far more compelling business model for LLM providers than charging users $100/month.

To use an extreme example, mesothelioma-related keywords have a CPC of up to $200-300 on Google. https://www.kantar.com/Inspiration/Advertising-Media/The-most-expensive-keywords-on-Google

Asbestos victims are eligible to file claims to mesothelioma trust funds, and the median claim value is $180k and can be up to $1.2m. https://www.asbestos.com/mesothelioma-lawyer/compensation/trust-fund/

An LLM could do all the work to determine whether or not someone was eligible for a claim, ascertain the likely value of the victim's claim, and fill out the claim on their behalf.

Given that the median claim value is $180k, it wouldn't be unreasonable for a law firm to bid $50-100k to be referred this highly qualified lead.

2) Incidentally, this post is more detailed and thought out than a post I wrote in 2023, which basically has the same conclusion that Big Tech will continue to dominate: https://blog.inverteum.com/p/bigger-is-better

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Ben Buchanan's avatar

I agree!

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Joe | 3MB's avatar

Incredibly thought-provoking. You are a very smart man.

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Simon's avatar

"The only companies capable of disrupting Big Tech companies are other Big Tech companies

IF a Big Tech company is disrupted by another Big Tech company - the economic value derived from said disruption is likely to be approximately equal to or greater than the value it disrupted (i.e. competition within the group as a whole will not result in profit cannibalization)

Big Tech is undervalued relative to the S&P 500"

Replace "Big Tech" with "Big Tobacco" each time and amazingly it's still true.

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Ben Buchanan's avatar

That's a really interesting comment and makes sense to me. What I guess the Tobacco is missing compared to tech are the big secular tailwinds.

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Joshua Swift's avatar

can you share the updated weights so I can be lazy and not do it myself? Thanks haha

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